Is Harper on his way out?
By Kenneth Bagnell
“If you’re going through hell,” said Winston Churchill, the man many regard as the 20th century’s greatest, “keep going.” Stephen Harper must have read that. Never mind mundane things like the federal budget or global affairs. The senate scandal with its infighting, all by itself, assures him as he awakes each morning that the fires of hell, his very own hell, are still hot and show no signs of cooling. One example suffices: the depth of the distain between one of his chief advisors and one of his Senators, Mike Duffy: “If you continue to misquote me,” the former writes the latter, “we will be speaking only through lawyers…”
In any case, quite apart from the sound of sharpening blades within and without the Senate, Mr. Harper may be in the twilight of his Prime Ministerial years. It doesn’t matter much whether he had or didn’t have his manipulative hand inside the Senate. Profound damage has been done: (a) the support for his party was down in all four recent by-elections (b) there isn’t the slightest sign that the party can put an end to the endless Senate fiasco, (c) he can legitimately and personally be held responsible for the very troubling appointments of three Senate players: Brazeau, Duffy, and Wallin. (d) if he didn’t know what was happening he’ll be blamed for not knowing, if he did know he’ll be blamed for knowing.
A recent issue: it’s very likely that his proposed visit this January to Israel has emerged from the painful times he currently faces. As for Mr. Harper’s well known and vigorous support of Israel I am not quarrelling. It’s just that it speaks to his growing political vulnerability, if not desperation; any politicians would do likewise to solidify their strongest support in dire times. Several days ago he attended a Toronto sold-out meeting of about 4,000 Israel supporters, the Jewish National Fund’s Negev Dinner. It was well reported on the front page of The National Post, one of Canada’s most readable and incisive papers. “We understand”, the Prime Minister told his huge audience, “that the future of our country and of our shared civilization depends on the survival and thriving of that free and democratic homeland of the Jewish people. In the Middle East … Israel will always have Canada as a friend … As long as we are there, Canada will hold firm.” (When he makes his visit, he’ll also drop in to acknowledge the Palestinian Authority, a practice of visiting both sides expected of senior public figures, responsible scholars and credible political journalists.)
Another sign of the troubles that lead to change at the top: the media organizations, very often a window on what’s ahead, have begun to talk of potential successors. In that regard, Mr. Harper, to his credit, has not made his leash on the caucus so short that none dare be so bold as to take positions revealing leadership potential. The two most likely, in my view and the view of Ottawa journalists I’ve spoken with, are two: Jason Kenney and John Baird. Mr. Kenney, the Employment Minister, is the most forthright member of the Cabinet and thereby made himself the most obvious, complaining aloud that journalists at November’s Conservative convention were deliberately kept restricted from advantageous access, defending the character of Nigel Wright, and most risky of all, saying of Toronto’s hugely embarrassing Mayor Rob Ford: “Mr. Ford has brought dishonour to public office, to the office of Mayor and his city. I wish he had taken a leave of absence some time ago to go and deal with his personal problems….. He should step aside and stop dragging Toronto through this terrible embarrassment.” That’s strong, inviting the retort of mind your own business.
Keep in mind that Stephen Harper so covets Rob Ford’s base of support (mainly the bingo crowd) that not long ago, he attended a barbecue at his home. In commenting on Kenney not long ago Jeffrey Simpson, the long time and highly credible Ottawa columnist of The Globe and Mail said: “It is widely assumed in Conservative circles and beyond that Mr. Kenney will seek the party leadership when the time comes.” (Obviously, there’s something else about Mr. Kenney — he’s shrewd. He thereby knows, probably by his sharp instinct, where Stephen Harper’s line in the sand is drawn as to how freely he (Kenney) can speak his mind. That instinct is gold in a politician’s life.
The other obviously potential successor, John Baird, has one of the highest profiles given his post as External Affairs minister. He’s been involved in Tory politics since age 16, when he became a junior helper (probably errand boy) in Ontario Progressive Conservative politics, to Roy MacMurtry, then Dennis Timbrell. In time, after graduating from Queen’s, he became an Ontario MPP, worked up to senior cabinet jobs as minister of Social Services, Energy, and most notably (in political value) Minister of Francophone affairs. He became a federal MP in 2006, and has had portfolios in Transport, Environment and as President of the Treasury, before becoming External Affairs minister in 2011. (He’s also an outspoken advocate of Gay Rights around the world.) It has to be mentioned that in and out of the House of Commons Baird has a strongly combative reputation, which can be an advantage or the proverbial Achilles heel. For example, he almost seemed to take abundant delight in announcing last year the closing of the Iranian embassy in Ottawa and kicking its diplomats out of the country. But even more telling he was denounced in 2011 by a group of left wing activists for his 100-percent-and-more support of Israel. (They said he should quit politics and apply for the job of Israel’s Ambassador to Canada. At least they did so with a bit of wit, albeit tiny.)
In any case the next federal election is still about two years away — October, 2015. In politics that’s actually quite distant. But as we move forward we can probably be certain of one thing: the expression “Senate Scandal” will be part of Canada’s political discourse for many years to come.
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