The Crumbling of the Conservatives

 

                                  

                      by Kenneth Bagnell

  

      Alberta’s NDP and its recent electoral success — decimating the governing Progressive Conservatives —- has surprised the country more than it should have. The reason for the defeat is far more prosaic than many of the commentators would have you believe. The reason is basic: Alberta’s PC party has had its day. Its reign lasted forty-four years. Enough. That’s what led to the change, not the appeal of the NDP policies or its leader, now Premier Rachel Notley. And it wasn’t triggered by the self-centered approach of the PC’s Jim Prentice whose virtually instant resignation was a bit tainted by a chilly aloof style. No, it was, to quote one of the most overworked clichés in politics:  time for a change. And the change was monumental: before Election day May 5, the NDP held four seats; the day after election day, it held 53. (The PCs have only ten.)

      Nonetheless, there’s no need for the worried wringing of hands that Alberta is now in the grip of dangerous socialism, an ominous creed that just might spread through the body politic. Nor do I take seriously the theatrical delight of NDP federal leader Thomas Mulcair – an able man, mind you – that the stage is now set for the NDPs  national governance come October 19^th, federal election day. Probably not true. Moreover, the NDP, as has been shown by the leadership of both Bob Rae and Thomas Mulcair, is not so left-wing it will lead those of us who vote Liberal or Conservative to a nervous breakdown.

     The truth is that, in recent years, the Alberta PC government, probably beginning under the late eccentric Premier Ralph Klein, has not been impressive. It went from one bungling leader to another, from Klein’s virtual dismissal, to the almost pathetic leadership of a man named Ed Stelmach who lasted five years, then came Allison Redford, whose time in office included a publically funded trip, close to $50,000. to attend the funeral of South Africa’s Nelson Mandela. (She eventually repaid it, but I do wonder why Alberta’s Premier had to be there at all while other Premiers didn’t.) Thus the stage was set for a decline which, on Election day, led not so much to an NDP victory as to a PC party’s dismissal. It was under the late Premier Peter Lougheed, that governance evolved as both ethically based and well managed. Over time these aspects were eroded.

    There are, given the broadly based victory of NDP premier Rachel Notley –- the party has a huge majority of the legislature’s 87 seats -– some challenges the newcomers must face. For one thing, Premier Notley is not experienced and even more worrisome, her caucus is not highly seasoned.  (Late last night, May 7, CBC televison carried a brief, troubling reference that hardly any of her potential cabinet have had elected experience.)  Moreover if Notley moves the party’s policy positions to the distinct left –- with heavier spending and deeper borrowing –- she may well follow the outcome that afflicted other former NDP leaders from the west coast to the east coast. They were men without much experience on budgetary matters, hence moved too far left too soon for the electorate and thereby were promptly out of office.)

         What are the consequences of the Alberta election for the Harper government? Joe Oliver, the finance minister did his best to play down the facts by saying it had no real significance for the federal party, it was only a regional issue. Not so. Alberta is not just Alberta. It’s a new day for the Harper government to deal with the Notley government. While the Alberta cabinet, may as its supporters say, not be composed of hard line socialists, it is certainly not made up of free enterprise marketers. Nor have past Progressive Conservative governments. When Peter Lougheed was the Conservative Premier, he’s said to have often reminded Alberta business leaders that the government, not the Chamber of Commerce, was in charge of the economy. (Lougheed was in nobody’s pocket or perceived influence from his respected brother Donald, who was a senior vice president and director of Imperial Oil. A reliable person who knew them, greatly admired their ethics, taken so strongly by both they rarely talked shop at the dinner table or on the tennis court.  The Premier preferred to avoid even touching petroleum policy with his own brother.)    

    Some of the commentary that followed the recent election result struck me as tainted with panic, as if a kind of British Socialism had descended on Alberta. Not really. I doubt that corporate taxation will, with a snap of the finger, be radically increased. I expect it will increase step by step to a degree, especially on the very wealthy. But as for, say, the engine of Alberta, the petroleum industry, the NDP government must move with great sensitivity. Why?  (a) Because the oil industry is the economic engine of Alberta and (b) the industry is now in difficult times. The information I’ve received is that the current level of corporate income taxes, 10 percent will move to either 11 or 12. That’s lower than it’s been for some years.

      Nonetheless the political shift in our most conservative province is a turn in the road of Canadian political history. When I watched it on television – especially the PC leader’s blunt, perhaps too blunt, resignation, I noted the dreary state of the auditorium in which he spoke. It was virtually empty. It made me wonder if we were seeing the opening stages of a political tsunami, one that would perhaps wreck the political culture of our country. It didn’t take long for me to revise my reckless thinking. It just may be a good development for those once known as “Red Tories.” I was one. 

 

 

All my past blogs are archived on my website: your comments are welcome there: www.kennethbagnell.com.