How will our neighbours vote?
Comments. Considerations. Questions.
by Kenneth Bagnell
Now and then, I recall how I used to hum an old song written back in 1936 when I was two years old. You may well remember it yourself. It was called, “It’s a sin to tell a lie.” I bring it up for a reason. Like you, I’ve often read about Donald Trump who wants to become President of the United States in a week or so. But the news in Canada’s largest paper, The Toronto Star, is this: he hasn’t told a lie or two, but by actual count he’s told 437 of them. The double spread essay is titled: “Why it’s important to count Trump’s Lies.” When The Star, a very professional paper, parades this claim we ought to pay attention.
The author, a rising journalist named Daniel Dale, is quite temperate. He lets the credibility of his count speak for itself. In fact it’s well known in the US and abroad that highly credible sources — from the New York Times to The Atlantic to Newsweek — have cast doubts on what he’s had to say about his finances, and many varying aspects of his life and career. Indeed there are people in high places who actually believe these are not just careless gestures but tactics rendered with clear intent. A respected US scholar named Michael LaBossiere, a professor of Philosophy at the respected Florida University, speaks up candidly. He says this: “Trump has perfected the outrageous untruth as a campaign tool. He rides that wave until it comes time to call up another one.” Is the man crazy? Really.
I’ve spent the best part of three days researching and listening to observers to give this outrageous practice the treatment it deserves as the eve of Election Day for the highest political position in the world draws ever near. And a bizarre man like Trump might just make it. Here, to give a touch of his flavour, are a few quotations, from a firm named PolitiFact, which has high credibility, thereby taken seriously by all media, including The New York Times.
Trump has said: “I watched when the World Trade Center came tumbling down.” He told this to a rally on a chilly November day. “And I watched in Jersey City N.J. where thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. Thousands of people were cheering. Pants on Fire.” (The fact is there is was no video of thousands of people of Jersey cheering. Weeks later Trump continued to stand by his claim but has not been able to point to evidence to back it up. Public safety officials on the ground in New Jersey say it never happened.
Daniel Dale, The Star’s reputable Washington correspondent said a few days ago: “I’m now spending much of my time immersed in Trump’s dishonesty….” His two page weekend spread had this shocking paragraph: “My first day making a Trump lie list, September 15, I counted 12 false claims. Among them: Trump falsely claimed again to have opposed the Iraq war, falsely claimed that Clinton’s campaign invented the phrase ‘alt-right’, falsely described his rocky visit to a church in Flint Michigan, falsely claimed his poll numbers with black voters were sky-rocketing and falsely claimed Hispanic poverty has worsened under the Obama administration….” (If you need even more evidence google this: “The Lies Trump Told, N.Y. Times, September 27, 2016.” Seriously this might go for years…(Daniel Dale’s major article first appeared in Politico magazine and is copyright 2016.)
In any case, it’s time to reflect briefly, on what the consequences this dreadful lie-filled campaign will yield to the future political culture of American life. I asked this of a friend, a Torontonian, a professional person, who brings an insightful intellect, Douglas Mc Whirter, He realizes that his speculation is just that and naturally I agree. But most interesting is his cautious optimism that the dissatisfaction Trump has brought to the campaign, may, in its ironic way, bring a cleansed and renewed political culture. (“I believe,” he begins, “history may conclude that Trump has made a profoundly positive contribution to American politics.”)
As he puts it, “Donald Trump’s candidacy has achieved two things: (1) The Republican party has been fragmented to the extent that it will take years to recover and it has no realistic possibility of returning to power in the foreseeable future. (2) He has given voice to a very large segment of the population which has become disaffected with the current government structure which, they believe, has failed them and undermined their wellbeing. We can debate whether this is a well-founded belief or not but we can’t deny its existence” (Doug’s analysis can be read in its entirety at the conclusion of this essay.)
Hillary Clinton is certainly not free from the burdens of the past: the email matter, in which she is being accused of permitting classified facts and analysis, being sent through a personal server. The biggest threat is Trump’s exploitation of this incident, major or minor. It’s sure to be exploited to the hilt in the homestretch of the campaign. Clinton’s supporters ridicule it as a threat while Trump will obviously exploit it as evidence of her questionable judgement if not competence. The most unfortunate aspect of this matter is that, for whatever reason, the FBI has returned to re-investigate the issue it had already investigated. Once was not enough. Even the Associated Press, in its report on the second examination, calls the letter from the FBI Director “ambiguous.” (The material was found on a computer owned by a separated husband of one of Clinton’s staff.)
Journalists covering the issue predict that it can’t be completed before November 8, Election Day. In any case, people who know the details of how it’s being handled, say it’s extremely unlikely that Clinton can be accused of violating the law. Despite these assurances the stress upon her must be excruciating.
In my own view, there is no contemporary reason to vote for Donald Trump; as for Clinton, but despite her critics, there are numerous and positive reasons to vote for her, including the obvious fact that it’s also a vote to keep Trump out of the White House. Many Republicans are doing just that. (A few days ago, a major Republican strategist in Arizona, Reuben Alvarez, made a statement in favor of voting for Clinton and added that he expects the major portion of Arizona Republicans will do the same. The reasons among many Republicans to vote Democrat are led by the same motive: keeping Donald Trump out. That said, there are many other valid and positive reasons for us to hope for a Clinton victory. In no special order they include these: she’s a competent female as are several other Presidents or Prime Ministers; her experience is far greater than her competitor’s; she’s a former Secretary of State, First Lady and a dedicated advocate for women; she will work to achieve an effective safety policy on gun purchase and ownership; she has a tuition plan that will make university study financially possible for those for whom its now too expensive; she envisions a financial policy that, while fair and reasonable, will foster disciplines on Wall Street. There’s more.
But for now, I have a final word on this enormously serious election. A noted man of world history once spoke a line that applies more than any other to the office Mrs. Clinton seeks. It’s very direct and it may never be so needed as it is now. It was spoken by no less a man than the late Dwight D. Eisenhower. “The supreme quality for leadership,” he said, “is unquestionable integrity…”
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An Intriguing view of Donald Trump
Here Ken are my thoughts pursuant to our brief discussion this afternoon after church service.
I believe history may conclude that Trump has made a profoundly positive contribution to American politics.
I suggest this because I believe that the essence of effective governance is the ability of governing parties to find common ground and to accommodate the opinions of others without compromising their principles.
The current political system in the U.S. is structured around two parties – Republicans and Democrats. Each has defined its policies in increasingly inflexible terms with the result that discussions have become highly polarized. As a consequence, there is no opportunity or will for each to accommodate the opinions of the other. The result is a completely deadlocked and dysfunctional Congress.
Donald Trump’s candidacy has achieved two things.
1. The Republican party has been fragmented to the extent that it will take years to recover and it has no realistic possibility of returning to power in the foreseeable future.
2. He has given voice to a very large segment of the population which has become disaffected with the current governing structure which, they believe, has failed them and undermined their wellbeing. We can debate whether this is a well founded belief or not but we can’t deny its existence.
At the same time, there is another large segment of the population that currently defines themselves as Democrats or Independents but are similarly disaffected with the current structure. They appear to be venting their frustration by abstaining from voting. This is a disturbing trend that has been evolving steadily in elections over recent years.
Whether Trump wins or loses, and let’s pray that the U.S. is spared him winning, his disaffected followers will not disappear. He has articulated their frustrations and misled them to believe that salvation from their miseries is possible. All they have to do is focus their efforts around a few simplistic and unrealistic solutions.
Assuming that Trump loses, I think it quite possible that a new, third party will emerge in the U.S. He may or may not be its leader but I think it is likely to form from his legacy. Its focus will be the need for fundamental structural change in the way the country is governed.
If a third party does emerge and achieve a significant following, which the current numbers suggest is highly probable, then the U.S. will find itself entering a new era where there are not two viable political parties but three. This could lead to a situation where no party has a majority in either or both the House or the Senate. The only way for legislation to be passed in this environment is for the parties to find a way to accommodate each other’s opinions, something that has proven to be impossible under the current structure. Just imagine, this could lead to a more functional Congress!
We may well conclude that this is an unlikely scenario and it may be. But we must remember that underlying all of the current frustration is a deep disaffection with the current structure and, thanks to Trump’s rhetoric, a belief that it can be fixed. This hypothetical third party is going to demand structural change and could have the votes to force that to happen.
They have been led to believe that change is possible and I don’t believe they can be ignored. The result could be the most fundamental change to the American form of governance since its formation and it will all be the due to the emergence of Donald Trump as a strident and compelling voice for change.
We may even live to see the day when history will applaud Trump for his pivotal contributions.
On the other hand, I may be the eternal optimist seeking a bright light at the end of a frustratingly gloomy political tunnel.
Douglas McWhirter
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Past blogs are archived on my website: your comments are welcome there: www.kennethbagnell.com.